Historically, September has been the most dangerous month for hurricanes on Florida’s West Coast. For Siesta Key and Gulf Gate residents, the memory of the 2024 hurricane season that brought three consecutive storms and tremendous devastation still looms large.

Sept. 10, 2026, marks the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. As we enter the final three months of the season, NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is maintaining its outlook for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Sarasota County Emergency Management Chief Sandra Tapfumaneyi reported that “according to the latest outlook from NOAA, we’re at a 75% chance of a below-average hurricane season.”

However, she cautioned, “Even though the outlook is better, one storm can damage our community.”

NOAA reports that during a typical hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, there are 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes, and three of those may become major hurricanes. As of mid-August 2026, three tropical storms — Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal — have formed and passed. To date, neither of Florida’s coastlines has been impacted.

While most people are feeling relief and hoping this will be another summer without incident, “we have a tendency to become complacent,” Tapfumaneyi said.

She urges Siesta Key and Gulf Gate residents to “never let your guard down.”

“Take precautions and use this quiet time to prepare. No two storms are alike. Use this time to evaluate your evacuation plans. Use this time to create your own emergency plan,” she said. “If you have to evacuate, you don’t need to go hundreds of miles away. Find a place to go. Often 10 miles will do it. Remember, there can be extensive damage after the storm.”

El Niño’s impact

The current climate condition known as El Niño, defined by The Washington Post as “a natural warming of ocean waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific that develops every two to seven years,” is influencing weather conditions around the world this summer.

Scientists say it will continue to play a strong role in the formation of hurricanes and tropical storms during the final three months of hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. El Niño is having a significant impact on tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin. Wind shear and Saharan dust from Africa have been disrupting the formation of tropical storms.

“When El Niño emerges,” said Matt Rosencrans, NOAA’s National Weather Service lead hurricane season forecaster, “it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity. This El Niño continues to get stronger every month.”

As we continue through the final three months of the 2026 hurricane season, Tapfumaneyi noted that this is an excellent time for residents to learn their home’s evacuation level.

“Use this time to prepare and to be ready,” Sarasota County’s emergency management chief said.

She also cautioned residents about the potential dangers posed by lithium-ion batteries during and after a storm. Batteries used in e-bikes, e-scooters, power tools and other rechargeable devices can become a fire hazard if they are damaged or exposed to floodwater, particularly saltwater. Residents should not attempt to charge or use a battery that has been submerged or shows signs of damage, such as swelling, leaking or overheating. Damaged batteries should be kept away from homes and other structures and disposed of according to local hazardous-waste guidelines.

All Sarasota County residents, she said, are encouraged to sign up for emergency alerts through Alert Sarasota.

Sarasota County offers these useful tips and emergency information:

Plan ahead and stay informed

Make a plan

Plan A: If your home was built after 2000, remain in your home unless told to evacuate.

Plan B: If you need to evacuate, go to family or friends who are outside your evacuation level.

Plan C: If you have pets, find a hotel with pet-friendly accommodations.

Plan D: Go to an evacuation center. All Sarasota County evacuation centers are pet friendly. The newest center is at Skye Ranch School on Lorraine Road.

Plan E: If you have medical dependents or medical needs, call 311 or 941-861-5000.

Build a hurricane kit that includes:

• One gallon of water per person and one gallon for each pet. Have a seven-day supply

• Nonperishable food for you and your pets

• A can opener, paper plates and utensils

• A first-aid kit

• A NOAA Weather Radio

• A power bank for a cellphone

• Cash

Download the free Sarasota County Emergency Preparedness Guide at the Sarasota County website.

For the most reliable and current hurricane information, visit the National Hurricane Center’s website.